We're so stupid, we're so smart

Really, you can predict damn near anything before week 1 of the regular season and it’ll sound at least plausible. But once the games actually count and coaches turn past page 1 of the playbook, you quickly learn that what you said in the preseason can easily sound downright retarded after week 1.

So, I figured I’d take a look back at our pre-season analysis and see how we did. While you obviously can’t say you know anything for sure after one week, we can still get a sense of how our predictions are looking so far.

I’ll be doing one of these every week; as you’ll see, we’ll be making some more-concrete predictions on a weekly basis during the regular season, so we’ll have plenty of opportunities to either be right and get all “told you so” about it, or be wrong and eat crow.

Things we’ll take credit for

  • I said I liked Shaun Alexander more than Frank Gore this season, and week 1 certainly didn’t change my mind (Alexander: 117 total yards and a TD vs the Bucs, Gore: 76 total yards and a TD vs the Cards). It isn’t that I don’t think Gore is equally as valuable as Alexander when he’s healthy, it’s that he’s been injured more than he’s been healthy thus far in his career (including college), and when those injuries include tearing both ACLs, you gotta wonder.
  • Brandon’s top sleepers for this season:
    • QB: Alex Smith – Didn’t have a great night fantasy-wise but the buzz on him has been very positive since last night’s win.
    • RB: Adrian Peterson – There was no way to predict the Chester Taylor injury, but Peterson put on such a show once he was the feature back, it’s hard to see the Vikings giving Taylor too many carries once he’s healthy again.
    • WR: Brandon Marshall – I was watching this game, and he looked downright scary at times against the Bills, even if the stats weren’t anything too exciting at the end of the game (5 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD).
  • So far, Brandon appears to have more hits than misses in his Sophomore Studs and Slumps:
    • Studs:
      1. Joseph Addai: Kind of an obvious one, but he justified his lofty spot on our RB cheat sheet in week 1.
      2. Jay Cutler: 304 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT… the yardage was sweet and qualified Cutler for some nice bonuses in many leagues. You’d like to see more touchdowns, but his performance (and that of his receiver Brandon Marshall) leaves me unworried that we’ll start seeing those soon.
      3. Laurence Maroney: Didn’t do anything special on a day when the Pats were more interested in the passing game (for good reason against the Jets secondary). Still looks likely to have a nice season.
      4. Reggie Bush: Bush did damn near nothing against the Colts, but then again, his whole team seemed to take the week off.
    • Slumps:
      1. Vince Young: He won the game for the Titans, but not for his fantasy owners, which really makes you question where his loyalties lie (78 passing yards, 22 rushing yards, 1 TD, 1 INT).
      2. Maurice Jones-Drew: MJD had an ugly fantasy game against the Titans; 60 total yards and a fumble lost.
      3. Marques Colston: Sadly, his six receptions for 47 yards probably represent the best fantasy performance the Saints had against Indy.
  • I was feeling pretty good about an Edgerrin James resurgence this year, and I’m feeling even better about it now (112 total yards, 1 TD).

Things written by those bastards who hacked our blog, unless they turn out to be correct, in which case we wrote them

  • Brandon’s top three picks in his Third Year WRs That Matter post didn’t get off to a great start:
    1. Reggie Brown (Eagles) – 1 rec, 14 yds
    2. Mark Clayton (Ravens) – bupkis
    3. Braylon Edwards (Browns) – 3 rec, 49 yds, fumble lost
  • I said: “At this point, the smart money’s on a committee situation in Buffalo, at least for the first few games of the season.” Oops.
  • I said: “Right now, I wouldn’t terribly mind having Harrington as my backup QB (I can’t believe I’m saying this), and you could probably wait until the very end of the draft to grab him if you’re thinking of giving him a shot.” And, well, look – the poor guy didn’t have a terrible game. He completed over 70% of his passes. And yeah, he threw two INTs for touchdowns, but one of them bounced out of his own receiver’s hands. But still, it’s hard to justify having him on a fantasy roster at the moment, I gotta admit.
  • Brandon advised you to feel safe starting Larry Johnson in week 1. That didn’t work out so well, but it’s not like you were going to bench him anyway.
  • I thought Torry Holt’s knee injury was going to be a problem this year, and it still might be as the season wears on, but he looked fine in week 1 (8 rec, 73 yds, 1 TD).