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  • Matt 3:50 pm on November 10, 2009 Permalink
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    Drool-worthy matchups for the stretch run 

    With nine weeks of data in the books on this year’s NFL team defenses, it’s now pretty clear which matchups you should absolutely love to see on your players’ schedules for the remainder of the season.

    Passing Defense

    Worst of the Worst:

    Detroit Lions: They allow a whopping 263 passing yards per game, including games where they gave up 358 to Brees, 340 to Campbell, 358 to Rodgers, and 329 to Hasselbeck. And only the Titans (who I’ll get to in a minute) have allowed more passing TDs.

    Kansas City Chiefs: Only ten sacks on the season, second-worst in the league, and only three interceptions, which is obviously the worst. (Interesting aside – the Redskins, who give up the fewest yards per game, are tied with the Browns for the second-fewest INTs – just four.)

    (More …)

    • e-roc 9:49 am on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Does this imply that you’re giving the edge to the Chiefs this weekend v. Oakland? Who’s going to suck less?

      • Matt 9:55 am on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        I’d prefer to pretend that game doesn’t exist. 🙂

        • The don 3:06 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

          Speak to me ohh fantasy gods i have a choice
          sidney rice
          Brandon Marshall
          Kevin Smith ( rb)
          Who deserves my starting roster spot this week?
          oh and calvin johnson

        • Squish 8:54 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

          A lot of my sources like Sidney Rice this week so think about taking him. Kevin Smith is the obvious option to me but I like taking a chance on Rice this week. You can’t expect much from Marshall against Washington’s pass defense and they should be WAY ahead all day. CJ hasn’t shown he’s fully healed yet so I’d wait to begin starting him again.

          So your real choices are Sidney Rice or Kevin Smith. The problem is that both of them have a downside. Rice won’t be getting too many looks because his team won’t need to pass and he’s got all kinds of competition at WR on his own team.. Kevin Smith gets looks but has done next to nothing with them. He has only 1 run over 20 yards all season and is averaging only 3.3 YPC. In the end I’d say take Smith if you only need 8 or 9 points (the highest projection I’ve seen for him in PPR is 16 with a low of 4) and Rice if you’d like more upside (I’ve seen PPR projections as a high as 24 points with a low of 7.8).

          My personal pick is Rice in both standard and PPR.

    • Squish 8:15 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Great post Matt. I’ve been tracking things more in my head but it’s really nice to see it all spelled out on the same page! I’ve definitely been planning to have these playoff matchups anywhere I can.

      As I said a few weeks ago it was a good idea to target Hightower who was low value then. I traded for him in several leagues and now my mouth is watering over his SF, DET, STL series of matchups which have Arizona as a team ranked in the top 5 of projected playoff fantasy scoring in every standard FF position.

      As it is now, for weeks 14-16 the top 5 at each position for projected (based on the average points given up by the teams on their schedule those weeks) are:
      QB – Hard to be able to do anything here. All the good QBs are already taken. However, Henne may be a viable fill-in down the stretch for Ryan and Orton owner’s (ranked 32nd worst and 27th worst playoff QB schedules respectively)
      1. SD
      2. MIA
      3. STL
      4. ARI
      5. NO

      RB – Watch the Jamaal Charles/Kolby Smith situation very closely. Go after Hightower if you can. I guarantee he pays off down the stretch. Also be the first to jump on Fred Taylor if he comes back.
      1. KC
      2. NE
      3. WAS
      4. ATL
      5. ARI

      WR – I’m ignoring STL and MIA because their offenses suck but at this point consider trading AJ or R. Moss for VJ or Fitz for a matchup upgrade down the stretch.
      1. MIA
      2. STL
      3. SD
      4. NO
      5. ARI

      TE – More or less doesn’t mean anything since they don’t have reliable options (save SF)
      1. TEN
      2. CIN
      3. SF
      4. ARI
      5. HOU

      DEF – Keep these in mind especially because a lot of them are available. I’ve had defenses in the Championship game win me as many titles as any other position.
      1. NYG
      2. NE
      3. ARI
      4. BAL
      5. OAK

      Anyway, just thought I’d add some stuff in. For a wider range of values go here:

      • Matt 9:54 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        Nice post yourself! 😉

        • Squish 10:53 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

          Thanks! I really just more or less combined data I found on different sites. No big hassle there. I meant to add kicker rankings but I can’t seem to find a way to edit my posts 🙁

    • Squish 10:55 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Nice! Just realized you guys got a mention at FFLibrarian! Great job!


      • Matt 12:01 pm on November 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        She’s awesome. I credit our “discovery” by the fantasy football community in 2007 in large part to the weekly link love she was sending us.

  • Brandon 2:55 pm on November 10, 2009 Permalink

    Week 10 Defenses to Consider 

    Here’s a quick list of teams that are playing some of the lesser offenses in the league this week and who could be available in your league in case you were looking for a plug-in (with the percent owned in parenthesis):

    • New Orleans (99%) @ St. Louis
    • Minnesota (97%) vs Detroit
    • Baltimore (96%) @ Cleveland
    • Denver (90%) @ Washington
    • New York Jets (71%) vs Jacksonville
    • Atlanta (70%) @ Carolina
    • San Francisco (70%) vs Chicago
    • Miami (53%) vs Tampa Bay
    • Tennessee (22%) vs Buffalo
    • Oakland (5%) vs Kansas City
    • Kansas City (3%) @ Oakland

    Unfortunately, most of the defenses matched up against the worst teams in the league are already owned in most leagues out there!

    • e-roc 9:36 am on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      I dropped the Falcons and picked up the Titans v. Buffalo… they have another juicy match-up in Week 14…

      I’m not high on ATL in facing the solid Carolina RBs after allowing 17 pts to the hapless and hopeless Redskins.

      • Wolf 10:06 am on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        I normally played Phili or GB as my defenses.. but GB has let me down in too many “easy” games… I may go with Baltimore vs Cleveland this week as all the other top matchups are taken.

    • Shirley 11:48 am on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      What do you think of the Cardinals D/ST going up against the Seahawks this week? I wanted to pick up the Dolphins because they should beat the Bucs but the Bucs could still score at least a TD or two and get a decent amount of yards.

      • Brandon 2:39 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        I’d go with Miami. Even if they give up some points, Josh Freeman isn’t experienced enough and is almost guarenteed to make a mistake or two, which could lead to a defensive touchdown. Plus, if your league awards for special teams scores, you have Ted Ginn returning the ball.

        • Shirley 3:19 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

          Thanks, Brandon. You’ve yet to steer me wrong 😀

        • Squish 9:53 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

          I’d have to disagree. The Cardinals as a team have forced 3 more TOs than Miami and are a threat to block a kick every week as well as giving up far less points than Miami. Sure Miami will outscore them if they get ST TDs but with 2 on the year, you can’t count on it. I do agree that freeman merely was a fluke but I think the DST upside goes to the Cardinals anyway.

          The great part about Arizona’s matchup this week is that we know they have a huge advantage on the line. When they played Seattle earlier this year (27-3) they had Hasselbeck running around like a chicken without a head. Hasselbeck got sacked 5 times (and near sacked another 8) lost a fumble and threw an INT. He had a completion % of only 34 and the team as a whole only had 128 yards. And this was when Warner was in a slump.

          Add in the fact that Hasselbeck re-injured himself against the Lions and now has a sore shoulder to go with his broken ribs. The coach himself stated that Hasselbeck is currently too sore to throw downfield (as his stats from last game show). I mean he didn’t even crack 100 QB rating against the freakin’ Lions! He still hasn’t finished a full practice since his injury. Look for Arizona to blitz like madmen the whole game.

          As a team, Seattle has played 5 different OL lineups in its last 8 games. The left side of their OL is in complete shambles with their two best tackles out for the season. They simply can’t protect Hasselbeck as is. Add the fact that they have a 30th ranked rushing offense in the league and I’ll be surprised if they can even get 200 yards against Arizona.

          Also, since both Miami and Arizona are at home it is a good idea to look at how well the teams they are playing do on the road. The Seahawks have lost all their road games on the year and have only had more than 300 net yards in one of them. TB has also lost their 3 road games but have scored more points and averaged more yards in their losses.

          In short, I think Miami’s DST is the safe play but I think Arizona has way more upside.

  • Matt 2:41 pm on November 10, 2009 Permalink  

    Many of our regular readers have probably already figured this out, but if you'… 

    Many of our regular readers have probably already figured this out, but if you’re looking for a quicker way to browse this site, check out the “Hide threads” and “Keyboard shortcuts” buttons near the top of this section of the page. “Hide threads” allows you to collapse all the comments (which can take a lot of scrolling to get through on particularly active posts), and “Keyboard shortcuts” gives you a quick way to navigate through all the discussions.

  • Matt 10:18 am on November 10, 2009 Permalink

    Congratulations to Joe M! 

    Congrats to Joe M., our contest winner! Joe was one of four who correctly predicted that Kurt Warner would be week 9’s top fantasy QB, a pretty ballsy pick considering Warner’s five interceptions in week 8. Joe’s name was randomly selected from the four who picked Warner. Way to go, Joe. Your $50 NFL.com gift card is in the mail.

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