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Updates from September, 2010 Toggle Comment Threads | Keyboard Shortcuts

  • Matt 4:34 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink
    Tags:   

    My boneheaded draft move 

    Double FacepalmI hate how much Brandon’s going to enjoy this post, but there’s a good lesson to be learned here so I’m obligated to write it.

    Our esteemed League of Champions held its draft on Tuesday, and overall I’m pretty satisfied with how my team came out. However, what I’ll likely remember most about this draft was the mistake I made in round 5. I had the 10th pick overall and drafted RB-RB-WR-WR to start. QBs were flying off the board, and by the time my pick came around in the 5th round, only one guy was left on my list of third-tier QBs – Joe Flacco. I couldn’t stand the thought of counting on the likes of Carson Palmer or Brett Favre this season, so I was sweating it as the rest of the league made their 5th-round picks. To my relief, Flacco did fall to me and I scooped him up without a second thought.

    Two seconds later, Brandon typed: “Stupid pick!” I was halfway through typing an impassioned defense of my high regard for Flacco this year when he elaborated, “You could have had him next round. 11 and 12 already picked QBs.”

    D’oh. He was right – had I taken the time to check, I would have noticed that the teams with the 11th and 12th picks already had drafted their quarterbacks and weren’t likely to take a QB2 in the fifth round – so I could have taken a third running back or wide receiver instead and grabbed Flacco in the sixth round five picks later. Percy Harvin was available and I almost definitely would have picked him up had I thought to do so.

    Instead, here’s how the picks went:

    ROUND 5

    10. Joe Flacco 11. Arian Foster 12. Michael Bush

    ROUND 6

    12. Percy Harvin 11. Justin Forsett 10. Brent Celek

    Ugh. I made the best of a bad situation by taking one of the highest-ceiling tight ends in the league, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t rather have Harvin or Foster.

    Moral of the story: Don’t get tunnel vision. Pay attention to the teams around you and who they’re likely to pick so that you don’t end up drafting a player earlier than you have to.

     
    • Brandon 4:39 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      In all honesty, I probably would have made the same mistake had I not been one of the guys who “already had a quarterback.” The guy with the last pick took Aaron Rodgers as his first overall pick and I took Tom Brady in the second round, so there were a couple of rounds for Matt to forget what was going on ๐Ÿ™‚

    • Brandon 4:41 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      Let’s not side-step the fact that both Brent Celek AND Jason Witten went BEFORE Jermichael Finley in this draft!!! Had I known that was going to happen, I most definitely wouldn’t have taken Dallas Clark in the fourth round. Moral of the story…sometimes people do crazy things.

      • Squish 10:04 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        That is wacky. Celek is going in round 6 normally but if Finley was still on the board that is ridiculous. I personally have been treating TE as my wild card pick this year. If there is a round where I feel I’m not getting sufficient value, I usually grab a TE. The earliest that happens is the 5th for me normally but in my drafts, there is always someone sticking around that nobody else likes. I’ve been getting Vernon Davis at a great price this year. I got him in the 6th last night. He may not be the guy he was last year but he’s still the team’s best target.

        • Matt 8:54 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          Jermichael who? Oh, that guy with one decent stretch of games and one 100-yard performance in his career?

        • Squish 3:09 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          No, the one who averaged 5.5 receptions a game last season. I fail see how half a season (8 games) can be considered a “decent stretch”. If that’s true then Charles also had only a “decent stretch of games”. And btw, he has two 100 yard games if you count the playoffs. If you take his average stats over the entire season and use it to determine what he would have done if he had been the starter all season, he would have finished with 90 receptions for over 1200 yards.

          Better than Celek who barely has 1200 yards and 90 recpetions over his last two seasons. If 100 hundred yard games are your predictor then why pick Celek? He’s had only 3 100 yard games over his four seasons with the Eagles and has never had a 150 yard game (Finley had one in the playoffs). I’d gladly give you Celek in a league if it meant I got to keep Finley! ๐Ÿ˜‰

        • Matt 3:17 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          Kolb + Celek in their two full games together last season: 208 yards + 1 TD. And he plays for the pass-happiest offense in the league. The way I see it, the first tier of TEs is Gates, Clark and Davis, Celek’s all alone in the second tier, and Finley, Witten and Gonzo are in the third. I’ll happily take your trade sir!

        • Squish 3:34 pm on September 4, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          Oh so you’re basing your pick on 2 games and I’m the one who was wrongly liking a guy only because of a decent stretch of games…

        • Matt 12:08 am on September 5, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          How about you and I put a side bet on it? Celek vs Finley straight up?

        • Squish 3:00 pm on September 5, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          I don’t know, I think it would be a little unfair. I was at the training camps of both teams for a bit and saw the plays they were learning. A little hint, the Eagle’s were using their backup TEs in a lot more sets in practice than last year. I have from a good source that they’ll be running more two TE sets for protection but they aren’t putting blocking TEs in there (they don’t really have any). Other TEs being in on plays will definitely steal some dumpoffs from Celek. He’ll still be on the field for 80% of the TE plays but keep in mind that last year he was on the field more like 90% of the time. Either way, I don’t see him matching last year’s numbers. Whether Finley can beat those numbers is up in the air but considering he’s the taller and faster of the two and has a better QB, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. Celek’s year will be dependent on how well the Eagle’s move the ball. Finley, being more of a slot receiver will not need to rely on red zone catches as heavily as Celek does.

          What kinda wager are we talking? Honor, blood, gold, or cheese?

    • blake 4:50 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      Why are yall taking TE so early? That is like buying wins in baseball, you can predict who is going to score more touchdowns week to week. I don’t understand why you would get a TE at the earliest by round 7.

      • Mal 7:07 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        I guess pictures TE as WR#4 so a a no.1 WR is better than a no.3??? I mean look at SD, Gates is going to have some serious targets there. There is that upper tier of TE that you have to class for yourself but I guess they’re worth a WR#3 or sometimes a WR#2? It’s probably a strategy I need to take in with me to a few mocks and see what I give up to get one of the top TEs (for me it may only be Gates in that upper echelon)

      • Brandon 8:33 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        I’ve done a few drafts this year and once you get past the first few tiers of wide receivers, you start realizing that you’re taking guys based on their upside, instead of some top tight ends that are sure things with nearly WR2 numbers. Looking back though, I admit I should have probably went with a better WR and then took a mid-tier tight end, because it definitely ended up costing me quality at the receiver position.

        • blake 12:31 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          you start realizing that youโ€™re taking guys based on their upside,
          I totally agree with this, I did a yahoo league with friends and had the 10th overall pick in a 10 team league
          moss, austin, marshall, colston, mccoy, forte (who i love this year), charles, maclin, flacco, williams (TB), Berrian, Cooley, Roeth, Portis, Che Taylor, Miami, Prater

          I was hoping for a better qb, but they jumped qb’s quick rodgers went 8th, brees 9th… going in I was going to take one of those, then go 3 wr next… [by colston pick qbs gone were rodgers, brees, manning, brady] prob should have went romo over colston, but myteam name is romosucks so skipped thanking i could get rivers but he flew off before my pick…

          i love this team, like this stragety this year with a next to last or last pick in a league.. what do you thank?

  • Brandon 11:10 am on September 2, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: , ,   

    Our 2010 fantasy football teams 

    With the drafts having taken place recently for the two most important fantasy football leagues that Matt and I take part in, I figured it was worth sharing who we ended up with. In case you were curious, we’re in a keeper league that uses a RB/WR flex position, as well as a “League of Champions”, which uses pretty standard scoring.

    I love my keeper league team, which could prove to be unstoppable, thanks in large part to my keepers from last season – Ray Rice, Jermichael Finley and Mike Wallace! As for my League of Champions team, I was definitely not prepared for the hardships that come along with the 11th pick of a 12 team draft. After drafting Rashard Mendenhall and Tom Brady with my top two picks, it was a LONNNGGG, painful wait before those next two picks. I’m putting a lot of faith two risky wide receivers with Housh and Edwards, but maybe Jacoby Jones and Legedu Naanee will step up and relieve those my worries (one can hope, right?!)

    Anyways, feel free to leave any questions/comments you have…

     
    • Squish 2:53 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      Looks good guys! I recently had the 10th pick of a draft in a 12 team league and I chose the alternative to what Brandon did (mainly because mendenhall was off the board). I ended up taking Moss in the first and Brees in the second. I did that mainly b/c there is no flex in that league. Ended up with Benson, McCoy, Bradshaw, and Cadillac at RB but Moss, Welker, and the other Moss at WR. I found there was more talent available in my needed areas at my pick with this strategy than when I take a RB first round with a late pick. Just a thought.

    • Mal 11:02 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      How did you possibly draft Johnson and Rice Brandon?

      • Brandon 8:35 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        Hah, our league is clueless? Just kidding. He was one of my keepers from last season. I drafted him in the 4th round last year, so this year he was my second pick. It just happened that I got first pick as well, so I got Chris Johnson. Pretty solid RB corps, huh?

        • Mal 8:49 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          of course! OOO YEAHHH

    • bigchimp 2:53 am on September 6, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      New to the board. Great site, btw.

      Unstoppable team with cj and ray rice but maybe a more realistic scenario if I could ask for an opinion.

      I had the 8th pick in a 12 team snake.

      Michael Turner, P Manning, Greg Jennings, Antonio Gates, Hines Ward, Arian Foster, LaDainian Tomlinson, Mike Williams(TB), Vincent Jackson, Santonio Holmes, Deon Butler, Mike Thomas, Nate Kaeding, Cincy, Jacoby Jones.

      Should I be worried about my rb situation and will I have enough firepower in my reach guys (vj, santonio, jacoby, mike Williams, Hines ward) to use as tradebait? What are your thoughts on the probability 2 of the 5 guys turn into legit #2 guys if any?

      Thanks in advance

      • Brandon 1:38 pm on September 7, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        I like your starting RB’s and “experts” are predicting that Foster is one of the top starts for week 1. However, you’re putting a lot of eggs in the Foster basket. It might be nice to get at least one more RB to round out your squad. At receiver, I assume you’ll be starting Jennings, Ward and hopefully Jacoby Jones to start the season. You’ll be all set once V-Jax and Santonio return, so maybe wait a few weeks before trying to trade for more running back depth.

        • michael 4:31 pm on September 7, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          so you wouldn’t start antonio gates over j jones or ward?

        • michael 4:32 pm on September 7, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          we start 1 qb, 2 rb, 2 wr, 1 wr/te, 1 dst, 1 k

        • Brandon 4:35 pm on September 7, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          Oh, didn’t know that was an option. I’d start Gates over Jones AND Ward in that WR/TE slot. So Jennings and Ward in the WR spots and Gates in the flex spot.

      • michael 4:52 pm on September 7, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        wow, fast reply…thanks very much for your help!

    • bigchimp 2:54 am on September 6, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      Sorry forgot to mention. Standard scoring non ppr 6 pt passing/rushing td

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