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My boneheaded draft move
I hate how much Brandon’s going to enjoy this post, but there’s a good lesson to be learned here so I’m obligated to write it.
Our esteemed League of Champions held its draft on Tuesday, and overall I’m pretty satisfied with how my team came out. However, what I’ll likely remember most about this draft was the mistake I made in round 5. I had the 10th pick overall and drafted RB-RB-WR-WR to start. QBs were flying off the board, and by the time my pick came around in the 5th round, only one guy was left on my list of third-tier QBs – Joe Flacco. I couldn’t stand the thought of counting on the likes of Carson Palmer or Brett Favre this season, so I was sweating it as the rest of the league made their 5th-round picks. To my relief, Flacco did fall to me and I scooped him up without a second thought.
Two seconds later, Brandon typed: “Stupid pick!” I was halfway through typing an impassioned defense of my high regard for Flacco this year when he elaborated, “You could have had him next round. 11 and 12 already picked QBs.”
D’oh. He was right – had I taken the time to check, I would have noticed that the teams with the 11th and 12th picks already had drafted their quarterbacks and weren’t likely to take a QB2 in the fifth round – so I could have taken a third running back or wide receiver instead and grabbed Flacco in the sixth round five picks later. Percy Harvin was available and I almost definitely would have picked him up had I thought to do so.
Instead, here’s how the picks went:
ROUND 5
10. Joe Flacco 11. Arian Foster 12. Michael Bush
ROUND 6
12. Percy Harvin 11. Justin Forsett 10. Brent Celek
Ugh. I made the best of a bad situation by taking one of the highest-ceiling tight ends in the league, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t rather have Harvin or Foster.
Moral of the story: Don’t get tunnel vision. Pay attention to the teams around you and who they’re likely to pick so that you don’t end up drafting a player earlier than you have to.
Squish, 
Matt, 
blake and 2 others are discussing.
Brandon 4:39 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink |
In all honesty, I probably would have made the same mistake had I not been one of the guys who “already had a quarterback.” The guy with the last pick took Aaron Rodgers as his first overall pick and I took Tom Brady in the second round, so there were a couple of rounds for Matt to forget what was going on
Brandon 4:41 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink |
Let’s not side-step the fact that both Brent Celek AND Jason Witten went BEFORE Jermichael Finley in this draft!!! Had I known that was going to happen, I most definitely wouldn’t have taken Dallas Clark in the fourth round. Moral of the story…sometimes people do crazy things.
Squish 10:04 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink |
That is wacky. Celek is going in round 6 normally but if Finley was still on the board that is ridiculous. I personally have been treating TE as my wild card pick this year. If there is a round where I feel I’m not getting sufficient value, I usually grab a TE. The earliest that happens is the 5th for me normally but in my drafts, there is always someone sticking around that nobody else likes. I’ve been getting Vernon Davis at a great price this year. I got him in the 6th last night. He may not be the guy he was last year but he’s still the team’s best target.
Matt 8:54 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink |
Jermichael who? Oh, that guy with one decent stretch of games and one 100-yard performance in his career?
Squish 3:09 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink |
No, the one who averaged 5.5 receptions a game last season. I fail see how half a season (8 games) can be considered a “decent stretch”. If that’s true then Charles also had only a “decent stretch of games”. And btw, he has two 100 yard games if you count the playoffs. If you take his average stats over the entire season and use it to determine what he would have done if he had been the starter all season, he would have finished with 90 receptions for over 1200 yards.
Better than Celek who barely has 1200 yards and 90 recpetions over his last two seasons. If 100 hundred yard games are your predictor then why pick Celek? He’s had only 3 100 yard games over his four seasons with the Eagles and has never had a 150 yard game (Finley had one in the playoffs). I’d gladly give you Celek in a league if it meant I got to keep Finley!
Matt 3:17 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink |
Kolb + Celek in their two full games together last season: 208 yards + 1 TD. And he plays for the pass-happiest offense in the league. The way I see it, the first tier of TEs is Gates, Clark and Davis, Celek’s all alone in the second tier, and Finley, Witten and Gonzo are in the third. I’ll happily take your trade sir!
Squish 3:34 pm on September 4, 2010 Permalink |
Oh so you’re basing your pick on 2 games and I’m the one who was wrongly liking a guy only because of a decent stretch of games…
Matt 12:08 am on September 5, 2010 Permalink |
How about you and I put a side bet on it? Celek vs Finley straight up?
Squish 3:00 pm on September 5, 2010 Permalink |
I don’t know, I think it would be a little unfair. I was at the training camps of both teams for a bit and saw the plays they were learning. A little hint, the Eagle’s were using their backup TEs in a lot more sets in practice than last year. I have from a good source that they’ll be running more two TE sets for protection but they aren’t putting blocking TEs in there (they don’t really have any). Other TEs being in on plays will definitely steal some dumpoffs from Celek. He’ll still be on the field for 80% of the TE plays but keep in mind that last year he was on the field more like 90% of the time. Either way, I don’t see him matching last year’s numbers. Whether Finley can beat those numbers is up in the air but considering he’s the taller and faster of the two and has a better QB, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. Celek’s year will be dependent on how well the Eagle’s move the ball. Finley, being more of a slot receiver will not need to rely on red zone catches as heavily as Celek does.
What kinda wager are we talking? Honor, blood, gold, or cheese?
blake 4:50 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink |
Why are yall taking TE so early? That is like buying wins in baseball, you can predict who is going to score more touchdowns week to week. I don’t understand why you would get a TE at the earliest by round 7.
Mal 7:07 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink |
I guess pictures TE as WR#4 so a a no.1 WR is better than a no.3??? I mean look at SD, Gates is going to have some serious targets there. There is that upper tier of TE that you have to class for yourself but I guess they’re worth a WR#3 or sometimes a WR#2? It’s probably a strategy I need to take in with me to a few mocks and see what I give up to get one of the top TEs (for me it may only be Gates in that upper echelon)
Brandon 8:33 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink |
I’ve done a few drafts this year and once you get past the first few tiers of wide receivers, you start realizing that you’re taking guys based on their upside, instead of some top tight ends that are sure things with nearly WR2 numbers. Looking back though, I admit I should have probably went with a better WR and then took a mid-tier tight end, because it definitely ended up costing me quality at the receiver position.
blake 12:31 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink |
you start realizing that you’re taking guys based on their upside,
I totally agree with this, I did a yahoo league with friends and had the 10th overall pick in a 10 team league
moss, austin, marshall, colston, mccoy, forte (who i love this year), charles, maclin, flacco, williams (TB), Berrian, Cooley, Roeth, Portis, Che Taylor, Miami, Prater
I was hoping for a better qb, but they jumped qb’s quick rodgers went 8th, brees 9th… going in I was going to take one of those, then go 3 wr next… [by colston pick qbs gone were rodgers, brees, manning, brady] prob should have went romo over colston, but myteam name is romosucks so skipped thanking i could get rivers but he flew off before my pick…
i love this team, like this stragety this year with a next to last or last pick in a league.. what do you thank?