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Tagged: draft strategy RSS

  • Brandon 10:20 am on September 7, 2011 Permalink
    Tags: , , draft strategy,   

    Brandon’s 2011 fantasy football teams 

    Just felt like showing off my fantasy football teams for this season, along with a couple of notes based on the similarities and differences between the leagues.

    • Got Patriots TE Aaron Hernandez on all four teams. He has great upside and could easily be the best receiver on the Patriots this year…and he doesn’t cost anything! You can grab a starting tight end earlier in the draft, such as Owen Daniels (who I got in multiple leagues), and still get Hernandez towards the end in case he has a huge year.
    • I never had the courage to draft a top tier quarterback. With a shallow running back and wide receiver class this year, it seemed more important to solidify those positions and then just grab two (or three?) quarterbacks that can be rotated in based on match-ups. It seems I went RB-RB-WR or RB-WR-RB in all of my leagues to start the drafts.
    • Based on them being on more than one of my team’s this year, some of the players I’m high on (and see good value in) are: Matthew Stafford, Sam Bradford, Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore, Mario Manningham, Wes Welker, Owen Daniels, Jacoby Ford, Aaron Hernandez, DeAngelo Williams and the New England defense.
    • This year Yahoo has Toyota as one of their sponsors and in each league, they award the Toyota best drafted team (or something.) My Beer league team was the only one to win this prize, but one out of four isn’t bad I guess!
    • I wanted to pick my favorite team out of the bunch, but I actually really like all of my teams this year and expect big things from them.
    • My public league team is pretty stacked, but the scoring is wacky, so who knows how good it’ll end up doing!

     
  • Brandon 11:40 am on September 1, 2011 Permalink
    Tags: , draft strategy, jimmy graham, ,   

    Don’t rush to draft a tight end this year! 

    With a couple of drafts under my belt at this point, I wanted to point out that this year’s tight end class is DEEP! To the right you can see a list of the free agent tight ends in Matt and my League of Champions league. If I hadn’t drafted a backup, you’d also find Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez on that list. Realistically, beyond the top 4-6 tight ends (Gates, Finley, Clark, Witten and maybe Daniels and Davis) there is no saying how the final numbers will end up for the position. Are you really confident that someone like Marcedes Lewis is going to be better than some of the guys on that free agent list? Lot’s of people do apparently, since his average draft position is in the 9th round somehow.

    New Orleans tight end Jimmy Graham, a second year player who has 31 catches in his career, is currently being drafted in the 6th round! You have to have some serious confidence that he’s going to pick up exactly where he left off at the end of last season to invest that much in him. Personally, I’d much rather grab a receiver like Mario Manningham or Kenny Britt in the 6th round, then pair them up with a tight end like Tony Gonzalez, Kellen Winslow or even Zach Miller (who should be solid with John Carlson now out for the year.)

    It might not be the norm in most years, but this season, as long as your league has around five bench spots available, you might consider drafting a backup tight end (specifically Aaron Hernandez.) Hernandez and his teammate Rob Gronkowski can produce like a top flight tight end on any given week. Zach Miller, Todd Heap and Jermaine Gresham could also end up being very good as their inexperienced quarterbacks continuously look for safety valves.

    Similar things can be said about the quarterback position this year, so make sure to focus much of your attention early in the draft on the running back and wide receiver positions. The talent at those positions is not as deep and you don’t want to find yourself rolling out some scrubs each week just because you wanted to gamble on Jimmy Graham (who could end being awesome…but could end up not being awesome too!)

     
    • tommy 12:36 pm on September 4, 2011 Permalink | Reply

      disagree…. i like taking a stud TE in the 5th round or so

      • Brandon 9:53 pm on September 5, 2011 Permalink | Reply

        Which tight ends are you targeting in the 5th round?

        • tommy 11:13 pm on September 5, 2011 Permalink | Reply

          Ended up with Gates in my league… our league is 6 pt TD for QB and start 2 qb, also .5 ppr this was my draft

          Round 1 Brady
          Round 2 Calvin
          Round 3 Sjax
          Round 4 Gore
          Round 5 Gates

          …added on Cutler, Beanie Wells, Ochocinco, Addai, and a few others

          I do like the idea of waiting and tyring to get Jimmy Graham later in the draft though

          • Brandon 11:55 am on September 6, 2011 Permalink | Reply

            With that strategy, you end up putting a lot of faith in Gates staying healthy and Ochocinco putting up some decent numbers. If you were to wait a bit for Owen Daniels or something, you could have a solid WR2 to pair with Megatron. If Gates stays healthy though, then he kind of acts as your WR2.

            • tommy 4:52 pm on September 6, 2011 Permalink

              Yeah, my WRs aren’t great, but the rest of my team makes up for it

              Brady
              Cutler

              Megatron
              Ocho
              Amendola
              Lance Moore

              Jackson
              Gore
              Wells
              Addai

              Gates

              I pretty much drafted around an assumption that I’ve had all preseason that Ocho is going to be a beast this year. Just a feeling I have.

          • sua cho 1:10 pm on September 7, 2011 Permalink | Reply

            vick
            fitzgerald
            J. maclin
            ahmad bradshaw
            green-ellis
            antonio gates
            vernon gates
            LT

            having mixed feelings.. would like some comments…

            not a great bench key names-
            plaxico
            mark sanchez
            marion barber (garbage)
            josh freeman (love the kid)

            • sua cho 7:54 pm on September 21, 2011 Permalink

              davis*

    • TJ 1:35 am on September 6, 2011 Permalink | Reply

      I have Hernandez and Kendricks at TE, need to start one, non-ppr. Hernnadez might be solid, Kendricks had a great preseason, but…….

      Lots of FAs available in our 10-team league, wondering if any of you think the following FA’s might be an upgrade over either guy: Cook, Watson, Heap, Boss, Gresham, Celek, Heath Milller, Fred Davis….

      • Matt 10:48 am on September 6, 2011 Permalink | Reply

        I’d stick with what you’ve got.

      • tommy 4:51 pm on September 6, 2011 Permalink | Reply

        Really like Jared Cook this year as a potential breakout

    • Joe 10:10 am on September 6, 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Someone just dropped Owen Daniels in my league. I have Gonzalez and Lewis. Should I drop one of them to pick up Daniels?

      • Matt 10:46 am on September 6, 2011 Permalink | Reply

        Absolutely. No clue why someone would drop Daniels. He’s a major upgrade over Gonzo or Lewis. I’d drop Lewis.

        • Joe 11:14 am on September 6, 2011 Permalink | Reply

          Ok, then a follow up question to that.

          Kenny Britt was also dropped, who should I take first on the waiver? I have the 2nd position so I will get one of them at least. Would you take Daniels before Britt?

          I have C Johnson, M Wallace, and Welker as my WR.

  • Brandon 7:22 pm on August 26, 2011 Permalink
    Tags: draft strategy   

    All-Value Team and my master drafting plan 

    Just a precursor to this post, over the past few months I’ve been trying to dream up the perfect fantasy football team that anyone (barring a crazy drafting move by another team manager) could draft. My strategy was somewhere along the lines of you ignoring the players that were available and just drafting a team that you predetermined. Or maybe you follow a draft strategy based on the average draft position of your predetermined team, then if you see a player at a position that you are drafting that is better than the guy on your team, you take him instead. Either way, you go into the draft with a certain draft-able team in mind. Make sense? Probably not, but oh well. I’ll perfect the plan at some point! πŸ™‚

    Anyways, here’s a team of players I’ve noticed that seem to have pretty good value at this point…and also a team that could very realistically be drafted by anyone. What’s everyone think? Maybe you want to come up with your own team.

    QB: Matt Ryan (ADP: 63)
    RB: Darren McFadden (ADP: 13)
    RB: Felix Jones (ADP: 35)
    WR: Wes Welker (ADP: 42)
    WR: Mario Manningham (ADP: 59)
    WR: Lance Moore (ADP: 112)
    TE: Owen Daniels (ADP: 73)Bench: Jacoby Ford (ADP: 108)
    Bench: Joe Flacco (ADP: 115)
    Bench: Mario Barber (ADP: 142)
    Bench: Aaron Hernandez (ADP: 146)
    Bench: Brandon Gibson (ADP: late)

    Draft order:
    1. Darren McFadden
    2. Felix Jones
    3. Wes Welker
    4. Mario Manningham
    5. Matt Ryan
    6. Owen Daniels
    7. Joe Flacco
    8. Jacoby Ford
    9. Lance Moore
    10. Marion Barber
    11. Aaron Hernandez
    12. Brandon Gibson

    Note: ADP values taken from Fantasy Football Calculator.

     
    • AJ 2:53 am on August 27, 2011 Permalink | Reply

      I have actually been doing the same thing. I have been doing it from a different draft spot everyday, having started at #1 and eventually ending at 14, then I open up a tab and open, http://subscribers.footballguys.com/rate-my-team/form.php. Follow the directions, I use this team rating tool to see how my method holds up. I click back and forth between the mock draft and the team rater inserting player names as I draft them. Now, since I won’t know where I’m drafting from until 1hr before my league draft, I will save the mock results and the rate my team results so that on draft day I have some something specific to the spot I’m picking from. Definitely check out the (rate my team) feature at that other site, it’s pretty cool.

      • Brandon 2:06 pm on August 29, 2011 Permalink | Reply

        That team rating tool is pretty cool actually. I’ll have to put up a post about it. Thanks for the heads up!

    • The Don 10:12 pm on August 27, 2011 Permalink | Reply

      who would you take brandon gibson vs sidney rice for the last draft spot?

    • Kendall 12:22 am on August 30, 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Hey Brandon, I have a quick question for you. I have Ray Rice and am currently being offered Tom Brady and Deangelo Williams for him. If I make the trade, I will have Brady, Adrian Peterson, Deangelo Williams. Without the trade I will have Matt Schaub, Adrian Peterson, and Ray Rice. What sounds like the better play to you?

      • Brandon 2:05 pm on August 30, 2011 Permalink | Reply

        It’s too risky. I think Tom Brady will be awesome this year, but the potential drop off from Rice (potentially one of the top RBs in the league this year) to DeAngelo Williams (potentially a huge bust) is too much to overcome by upgrading from Schaub to Brady. Stick with Peterson and Rice and have fun knowing you have the best RB duo in the league.

        • Kendall 5:19 pm on August 31, 2011 Permalink | Reply

          I went ahead and made the trade. Gave up Eagles D and Rice for Brady and DeAngelo. I have Petersen, Felix Jones, and Jahvid Best. Also I think I will be able to trade Schaub for Baltimore D. Risky move but its boring if you don’t trade!

    • jmac 3:14 pm on August 30, 2011 Permalink | Reply

      Thoughts on my team?? I had a mid round pick in a standard 12 team.

      Ben Roethlisberger QB PIT @ BAL 11 – Starter 0
      Felix Jones RB DAL @ NYJ 5 – Starter 0
      Jamaal Charles RB KAN vs BUF 6 – Starter 0
      Roddy White WR ATL @ CHI 8 – Starter 0
      Vincent Jackson WR SDG vs MIN 6 – Starter 0
      Jimmy Graham TE NOR @ GNB 11 – Starter 0
      Neil Rackers K HOU vs IND 11 – Starter 0
      New England Patriots Def/ST NWE @ MIA 7 – Starter 0
      Kevin Kolb QB ARI vs CAR 6 – Reserve 0
      Brandon Jacobs RB NYG @ WAS 7 – Reserve 0
      Tim Hightower RB WAS vs NYG 5 – Reserve 0
      Santonio Holmes WR NYJ vs DAL 8 – Reserve 0
      Greg Little WR CLE vs CIN 5 – Reserve 0
      Aaron Hernandez

      • Brandon 7:10 pm on August 30, 2011 Permalink | Reply

        Solid team! Nice depth at every position and especially like the upside of Felix Jones, Vincent Jackson and Aaron Hernandez. Something tells me the playoffs are in your future. Check out the FootballGuys.com team rater and see if they concur πŸ™‚

        http://ffgeekblog.com/2011/08/rate-your-team-with-footballguys-com/

        • jmac 1:37 pm on September 1, 2011 Permalink | Reply

          IYO..should i pick up N. burleson, m. floyd or j. ford and drop g. little?? i thought about burleson and took the rookie little. or is it too early to tell??

  • Brandon 12:17 pm on September 9, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: , draft strategy   

    B(eer) League draft results 

    In case anyone was interested, Matt and I participated in our final fantasy football draft of the 2010-11 season last night and I’ve updated the Google Docs spreadsheet listing our team (third tab!) The league is what we consider the B-League (or Beer League) and is more of a way for us to recruit our friends into the fantasy football addiction. In that light, we’re able to switch up our draft style a bit and take a few more chances than in the other leagues.

    Interestingly, we both went WR-WR-RB to start the draft and I honestly really like this team (maybe WR-WR-RB is the way to go!) Anyways, I’ve organized the spreadsheet so you can now see each league in a different tab, which should make it easier to view.

     
  • Matt 4:34 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink
    Tags: draft strategy   

    My boneheaded draft move 

    Double FacepalmI hate how much Brandon’s going to enjoy this post, but there’s a good lesson to be learned here so I’m obligated to write it.

    Our esteemed League of Champions held its draft on Tuesday, and overall I’m pretty satisfied with how my team came out. However, what I’ll likely remember most about this draft was the mistake I made in round 5. I had the 10th pick overall and drafted RB-RB-WR-WR to start. QBs were flying off the board, and by the time my pick came around in the 5th round, only one guy was left on my list of third-tier QBs – Joe Flacco. I couldn’t stand the thought of counting on the likes of Carson Palmer or Brett Favre this season, so I was sweating it as the rest of the league made their 5th-round picks. To my relief, Flacco did fall to me and I scooped him up without a second thought.

    Two seconds later, Brandon typed: “Stupid pick!” I was halfway through typing an impassioned defense of my high regard for Flacco this year when he elaborated, “You could have had him next round. 11 and 12 already picked QBs.”

    D’oh. He was right – had I taken the time to check, I would have noticed that the teams with the 11th and 12th picks already had drafted their quarterbacks and weren’t likely to take a QB2 in the fifth round – so I could have taken a third running back or wide receiver instead and grabbed Flacco in the sixth round five picks later. Percy Harvin was available and I almost definitely would have picked him up had I thought to do so.

    Instead, here’s how the picks went:

    ROUND 5

    10. Joe Flacco 11. Arian Foster 12. Michael Bush

    ROUND 6

    12. Percy Harvin 11. Justin Forsett 10. Brent Celek

    Ugh. I made the best of a bad situation by taking one of the highest-ceiling tight ends in the league, but that’s not to say I wouldn’t rather have Harvin or Foster.

    Moral of the story: Don’t get tunnel vision. Pay attention to the teams around you and who they’re likely to pick so that you don’t end up drafting a player earlier than you have to.

     
    • Brandon 4:39 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      In all honesty, I probably would have made the same mistake had I not been one of the guys who “already had a quarterback.” The guy with the last pick took Aaron Rodgers as his first overall pick and I took Tom Brady in the second round, so there were a couple of rounds for Matt to forget what was going on πŸ™‚

    • Brandon 4:41 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      Let’s not side-step the fact that both Brent Celek AND Jason Witten went BEFORE Jermichael Finley in this draft!!! Had I known that was going to happen, I most definitely wouldn’t have taken Dallas Clark in the fourth round. Moral of the story…sometimes people do crazy things.

      • Squish 10:04 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        That is wacky. Celek is going in round 6 normally but if Finley was still on the board that is ridiculous. I personally have been treating TE as my wild card pick this year. If there is a round where I feel I’m not getting sufficient value, I usually grab a TE. The earliest that happens is the 5th for me normally but in my drafts, there is always someone sticking around that nobody else likes. I’ve been getting Vernon Davis at a great price this year. I got him in the 6th last night. He may not be the guy he was last year but he’s still the team’s best target.

        • Matt 8:54 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          Jermichael who? Oh, that guy with one decent stretch of games and one 100-yard performance in his career?

        • Squish 3:09 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          No, the one who averaged 5.5 receptions a game last season. I fail see how half a season (8 games) can be considered a “decent stretch”. If that’s true then Charles also had only a “decent stretch of games”. And btw, he has two 100 yard games if you count the playoffs. If you take his average stats over the entire season and use it to determine what he would have done if he had been the starter all season, he would have finished with 90 receptions for over 1200 yards.

          Better than Celek who barely has 1200 yards and 90 recpetions over his last two seasons. If 100 hundred yard games are your predictor then why pick Celek? He’s had only 3 100 yard games over his four seasons with the Eagles and has never had a 150 yard game (Finley had one in the playoffs). I’d gladly give you Celek in a league if it meant I got to keep Finley! πŸ˜‰

        • Matt 3:17 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          Kolb + Celek in their two full games together last season: 208 yards + 1 TD. And he plays for the pass-happiest offense in the league. The way I see it, the first tier of TEs is Gates, Clark and Davis, Celek’s all alone in the second tier, and Finley, Witten and Gonzo are in the third. I’ll happily take your trade sir!

        • Squish 3:34 pm on September 4, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          Oh so you’re basing your pick on 2 games and I’m the one who was wrongly liking a guy only because of a decent stretch of games…

        • Matt 12:08 am on September 5, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          How about you and I put a side bet on it? Celek vs Finley straight up?

        • Squish 3:00 pm on September 5, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          I don’t know, I think it would be a little unfair. I was at the training camps of both teams for a bit and saw the plays they were learning. A little hint, the Eagle’s were using their backup TEs in a lot more sets in practice than last year. I have from a good source that they’ll be running more two TE sets for protection but they aren’t putting blocking TEs in there (they don’t really have any). Other TEs being in on plays will definitely steal some dumpoffs from Celek. He’ll still be on the field for 80% of the TE plays but keep in mind that last year he was on the field more like 90% of the time. Either way, I don’t see him matching last year’s numbers. Whether Finley can beat those numbers is up in the air but considering he’s the taller and faster of the two and has a better QB, I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt. Celek’s year will be dependent on how well the Eagle’s move the ball. Finley, being more of a slot receiver will not need to rely on red zone catches as heavily as Celek does.

          What kinda wager are we talking? Honor, blood, gold, or cheese?

    • blake 4:50 pm on September 2, 2010 Permalink | Reply

      Why are yall taking TE so early? That is like buying wins in baseball, you can predict who is going to score more touchdowns week to week. I don’t understand why you would get a TE at the earliest by round 7.

      • Mal 7:07 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        I guess pictures TE as WR#4 so a a no.1 WR is better than a no.3??? I mean look at SD, Gates is going to have some serious targets there. There is that upper tier of TE that you have to class for yourself but I guess they’re worth a WR#3 or sometimes a WR#2? It’s probably a strategy I need to take in with me to a few mocks and see what I give up to get one of the top TEs (for me it may only be Gates in that upper echelon)

      • Brandon 8:33 am on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

        I’ve done a few drafts this year and once you get past the first few tiers of wide receivers, you start realizing that you’re taking guys based on their upside, instead of some top tight ends that are sure things with nearly WR2 numbers. Looking back though, I admit I should have probably went with a better WR and then took a mid-tier tight end, because it definitely ended up costing me quality at the receiver position.

        • blake 12:31 pm on September 3, 2010 Permalink | Reply

          you start realizing that you’re taking guys based on their upside,
          I totally agree with this, I did a yahoo league with friends and had the 10th overall pick in a 10 team league
          moss, austin, marshall, colston, mccoy, forte (who i love this year), charles, maclin, flacco, williams (TB), Berrian, Cooley, Roeth, Portis, Che Taylor, Miami, Prater

          I was hoping for a better qb, but they jumped qb’s quick rodgers went 8th, brees 9th… going in I was going to take one of those, then go 3 wr next… [by colston pick qbs gone were rodgers, brees, manning, brady] prob should have went romo over colston, but myteam name is romosucks so skipped thanking i could get rivers but he flew off before my pick…

          i love this team, like this stragety this year with a next to last or last pick in a league.. what do you thank?

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