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  • Matt 3:50 pm on November 10, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: , , , , DST, , , , , ,   

    Drool-worthy matchups for the stretch run 

    With nine weeks of data in the books on this year’s NFL team defenses, it’s now pretty clear which matchups you should absolutely love to see on your players’ schedules for the remainder of the season.

    Passing Defense

    Worst of the Worst:

    Detroit Lions: They allow a whopping 263 passing yards per game, including games where they gave up 358 to Brees, 340 to Campbell, 358 to Rodgers, and 329 to Hasselbeck. And only the Titans (who I’ll get to in a minute) have allowed more passing TDs.

    Kansas City Chiefs: Only ten sacks on the season, second-worst in the league, and only three interceptions, which is obviously the worst. (Interesting aside – the Redskins, who give up the fewest yards per game, are tied with the Browns for the second-fewest INTs – just four.)

    (More …)

    • e-roc 9:49 am on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Does this imply that you’re giving the edge to the Chiefs this weekend v. Oakland? Who’s going to suck less?

      • Matt 9:55 am on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        I’d prefer to pretend that game doesn’t exist. 🙂

        • The don 3:06 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

          Speak to me ohh fantasy gods i have a choice
          sidney rice
          Brandon Marshall
          Kevin Smith ( rb)
          Who deserves my starting roster spot this week?
          oh and calvin johnson

        • Squish 8:54 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

          A lot of my sources like Sidney Rice this week so think about taking him. Kevin Smith is the obvious option to me but I like taking a chance on Rice this week. You can’t expect much from Marshall against Washington’s pass defense and they should be WAY ahead all day. CJ hasn’t shown he’s fully healed yet so I’d wait to begin starting him again.

          So your real choices are Sidney Rice or Kevin Smith. The problem is that both of them have a downside. Rice won’t be getting too many looks because his team won’t need to pass and he’s got all kinds of competition at WR on his own team.. Kevin Smith gets looks but has done next to nothing with them. He has only 1 run over 20 yards all season and is averaging only 3.3 YPC. In the end I’d say take Smith if you only need 8 or 9 points (the highest projection I’ve seen for him in PPR is 16 with a low of 4) and Rice if you’d like more upside (I’ve seen PPR projections as a high as 24 points with a low of 7.8).

          My personal pick is Rice in both standard and PPR.

    • Squish 8:15 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Great post Matt. I’ve been tracking things more in my head but it’s really nice to see it all spelled out on the same page! I’ve definitely been planning to have these playoff matchups anywhere I can.

      As I said a few weeks ago it was a good idea to target Hightower who was low value then. I traded for him in several leagues and now my mouth is watering over his SF, DET, STL series of matchups which have Arizona as a team ranked in the top 5 of projected playoff fantasy scoring in every standard FF position.

      As it is now, for weeks 14-16 the top 5 at each position for projected (based on the average points given up by the teams on their schedule those weeks) are:
      QB – Hard to be able to do anything here. All the good QBs are already taken. However, Henne may be a viable fill-in down the stretch for Ryan and Orton owner’s (ranked 32nd worst and 27th worst playoff QB schedules respectively)
      1. SD
      2. MIA
      3. STL
      4. ARI
      5. NO

      RB – Watch the Jamaal Charles/Kolby Smith situation very closely. Go after Hightower if you can. I guarantee he pays off down the stretch. Also be the first to jump on Fred Taylor if he comes back.
      1. KC
      2. NE
      3. WAS
      4. ATL
      5. ARI

      WR – I’m ignoring STL and MIA because their offenses suck but at this point consider trading AJ or R. Moss for VJ or Fitz for a matchup upgrade down the stretch.
      1. MIA
      2. STL
      3. SD
      4. NO
      5. ARI

      TE – More or less doesn’t mean anything since they don’t have reliable options (save SF)
      1. TEN
      2. CIN
      3. SF
      4. ARI
      5. HOU

      DEF – Keep these in mind especially because a lot of them are available. I’ve had defenses in the Championship game win me as many titles as any other position.
      1. NYG
      2. NE
      3. ARI
      4. BAL
      5. OAK

      Anyway, just thought I’d add some stuff in. For a wider range of values go here:

      • Matt 9:54 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        Nice post yourself! 😉

        • Squish 10:53 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

          Thanks! I really just more or less combined data I found on different sites. No big hassle there. I meant to add kicker rankings but I can’t seem to find a way to edit my posts 🙁

    • Squish 10:55 pm on November 11, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Nice! Just realized you guys got a mention at FFLibrarian! Great job!


      • Matt 12:01 pm on November 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        She’s awesome. I credit our “discovery” by the fantasy football community in 2007 in large part to the weekly link love she was sending us.

  • Matt 5:01 pm on October 12, 2009 Permalink
    Tags: DST,   

    Are kickers and defenses worth the trouble? 

    I’ve been daydreaming today about suggesting to the keeper league I commish that we just eliminate kickers and defenses altogether next season. There’s very little that’s compelling or interesting about them to me, and winning or losing a match because a defense had a couple of fumble recoveries for touchdowns just feels kind of random and empty. If your QB, RB, WR or TE has a huge game, you’re happy not just because of this week’s win, but also because it’s an indication that you’ve got an explosive player on your roster. If your defense or kicker has a big game – well, that’s great for this week, but there’s little reason to believe it’ll happen on a consistent basis. (More …)

    • Adam 5:56 pm on October 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      I definitely see where you’re coming from, especially your point about bye weeks, but I like having Def as part of fantasy football (not so much a kicker). My main reason for playing fantasy is that it makes more NFL games interesting and fun to watch – not just the couple games that affect my NFL team. For me, the Def position in fantasy really does that job better than a TE or 3rd WR or RB. The entire game is important when your defense’s points are on the line. This is kinda true with kickers, but not nearly as much. I could certainly do without a kicker position, but I’d keep the Defense.

    • Ryan 6:13 pm on October 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Here’s your solution…IDP! Use IDP’s and you take alot of the luck out of it. Sure there’s still “luck” involved (pick-sixes aren’t exactly consistent) but it takes alot more knowledge and skill to field a solid group of defensive players.

    • Pinwiz 6:23 pm on October 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Any league that would get rid of K and DST would be a league I would not play in. Without them, we would be excluding a significant part of the game.

    • Squish 7:19 pm on October 12, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      I’m all for getting rid of kickers. They are shoveled around like a dollar bill and their performance is really only a summation of their team’s performance. Besides nobody likes someone who is rooting for only a kicker in a particular game. It makes you look like a jackass.

      I’d have to disagree with getting rid of defenses. My personal reason is that picking defenses seems to be the one advantage I have over most fantasy owners. Too many people just let one defense sit and play all year. Thus it significantly increases my chances of winning. Secondly, watching a defense you are starting score a TD is one of the single most exciting things in the fantasy world. It’s far better than watching an offensive player score. In addition, adding defenses significantly increases the community’s overall knowledge of football. I now know at least half as many defensive players as I do offensive. I can sit down and talk for hours with someone about their favorite team no matter who their favorite team is.

      So, I do advise the no kicker rule as it is more luck based than skill based. Defenses on the other hand have to stay. To pick a good defense each week you need to know a ton about both the offensive and defensive capabilities of each team involved. There are more variables involved in predicting defensive scoring than any other type in the game. And though you speak of fumble recoveries for TDs and the like as random and unpredictable, I would have to say that 75% of the time I can predict whether a team will have a defensive TD in any given week. I played the 49ers last week, I played the Eagles week 1, I’ve played the Packers when Woodson took it to the house twice. If you pay attention, you can be sure of your decisions well before gametime. In Flea Flicker, 10 of my 11 teams have gotten at least 18% of their scoring from the DST position. If that’s random then I must be real lucky 😉

    • Terry Howard 8:06 am on October 13, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Maybe you should select your kickers a little better. Every year I put a little thought into picking a good kicker whose team puts him into situations to score often. I have Tynes this year and he contributes over 10 points a game nearly every week. I think you honestly just suffer from having poor skill at picking kickers. Sorry but its what it sounds like to me.

      As far as defenses… are you nuts? Football might as well be a gay sport like Soccer if it weren’t for the defensive element of the game. In one of my most favorite leagues we not only dish out points for sacks, INTs, return yards and points, but also dish out hearty penalties to QBs for sacks, as well as IDPs. Seeing your defense or player put a QB in the dirt and chalking up some points for you is probably the most satisfying part of fantasy football for me. I don’t see how you can truly enjoy the game of football and think the defenses should be left out. Might as well play fantasy baseball or something then.

      • Squish 4:09 pm on October 13, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        I’ve also grabbed Tynes in nearly every league. He’s a monster this year! Oh and it’s 11.4 PPG in Flea Flicker Standard…

    • Mads 11:11 am on October 13, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      A backup WR named Miles Austin came out of nowhere this week and decided the outcome of several matches – so, its not just defenses and kickers who have the random element, it is every position.

      That being said, I forgot to exchange my kicker on bye this week, simply because my focus was on all the other “important” players.

      In real life football games can both be won with incredible offenses or amazing defenses – and it should the same in Fantasy Football 🙂

      But, as Ryan mentions – maybe it simply time you changed to IDP?

    • Shirley 2:52 pm on October 13, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      I have the Jets DST right now and the Bengals, Broncos & Saints DST are somehow on the waiver wire. I’m tempted to drop the Jets for the Saints (or perhaps Bengals), especially after the last two games. What do you think?

      • Brandon 3:00 pm on October 13, 2009 Permalink | Reply

        With all of those teams available on the waiver wire, it seems that most people aren’t paying attention very much to the position. With that in mind, it might make sense to just pick up and drop your defense each week depending on the matchup. With the Jets playing the Bills this coming weekend, it’s probably best to stick with them.

    • Shirley 3:06 pm on October 13, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      True. Thanks again, Brandon!

    • Matt 4:17 pm on October 13, 2009 Permalink | Reply

      Had a feeling this one would get some reaction. 🙂

      You all make some good points, and I do feel far less strongly about ditching defenses than I do kickers. I guess it boils down to what you enjoy most about fantasy football.

      IDP might be something I’ll have to try next year.

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